Africa, Asia, and the Next Decade of Global Growth

A global-south focused piece on demographics, productivity, and opportunity

By Katherine Brennan

While wealthy nations worry about aging populations and shrinking workforces, a different demographic story is unfolding across Africa and Asia, one that could reshape the global economy over the next decade.

The Numbers That Matter

By 2030, 40% of the world's young people will be African. Between 2025 and 2050, Africa's population is set to surge from 1.4 billion to as many as 2.5 billion, with an estimated 830 million youth aged 15-35 currently on the continent. This represents one of the fastest expansions of the working-age population in world history.

Meanwhile, South Asia remains the world's fastest-growing region economically. Growth is projected at 6.6 percent in 2025, expected to slow to 5.8 percent in 2026 but still outpacing any other developing region. India is expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by strong consumption and ongoing reforms.

In a historic shift, the International Monetary Fund predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, compared to Asia's 4.1 percent marking the first time in modern history that African economies are expected to grow faster than their Asian counterparts.

The Job Creation Challenge

Here's where optimism meets reality: creating enough jobs for all these young people is monumental. By 2030, half of all new entrants into the global labor force will come from sub-Saharan Africa, requiring up to 15 million new jobs annually. Over the past decade, South Asia's working-age population grew by about 16 million every year, but the economy created fewer than 10 million new jobs annually.

More than one in four young Africans around 72 million people are not in employment, education, or training. Two-thirds of them are young women.

The problem isn't just unemployment. Nearly three in four working young adults in sub-Saharan Africa are in insecure work, and one in three paid workers earns less than the median wage. Many new labor market entrants find work in low-productivity, informal sectors that offer limited prospects for income growth.

The Digital and Technology Opportunity

Despite these challenges, there are genuine reasons for optimism. Southeast Asia's internet economy has tripled in size over the last four years to $100 billion and is projected to triple again to $300 billion by 2025. Indonesia and Vietnam are leading with growth rates exceeding 40% annually.

In India and Southeast Asia, artificial intelligence could promote growth by boosting productivity. Research shows that most AI-exposed jobs in South Asia are complementary with the technology rather than at risk of displacement, suggesting productivity gains rather than mass unemployment.

Digital transformation has the potential to reverse jobless growth in Africa and fundamentally alter the structure of African economies. E-commerce and fintech present particularly strong opportunities, allowing anyone with a smartphone to become an entrepreneur.

Trade and Integration as Growth Engines

The Africa Continental Free Trade Area covers 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion, creating the world's largest free trade area by population. Larger and more predictable markets allow firms to scale, enabling specialization and productivity gains.

Similarly, trade corridors linking South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are projected to grow nearly 4% faster than the global average. Global commerce is shifting toward greater trade and investment within the "global south."

Companies are moving from a "China+1" strategy to an "India+ASEAN" composite approach, transforming supply chains. India's Production-Linked Incentive schemes are pulling in manufacturing investments, while Southeast Asian economies deepen their role as flexible, export-oriented manufacturing bases.

The Path Forward

The next decade won't be easy. These regions face substantial headwinds: elevated debt-servicing costs, declining donor support, vulnerability to climate shocks, skills mismatches, and persistent gender gaps in economic participation.

But the fundamentals tell a compelling story. While advanced economies grapple with aging populations and slowing growth, Africa and Asia have young, increasingly educated populations, expanding digital economies, deepening regional integration, and rising middle classes creating enormous consumer markets.

The question isn't whether these regions will matter more to the global economy in 2035 than they do today, they almost certainly will. The real question is whether they can convert demographic pressure into a demographic dividend through the right investments in education, infrastructure, technology, and job creation.

The answer will shape not just Africa and Asia's future, but the entire world's economic trajectory.